Oruijin (002701): The turning point of the industry’s first year gold package leader is undervalued

The impact of Red Bull has diminished marginally, the market is expected to improve enough, and the gold bag leader is underestimated.

Since Red Bull’s trademark license agreement perturbation began in October 2016, after Red Bull’s short-term suspension of production in the first quarter of 2017, Red Bull’s performance itself has a substantial impact. Red Bull’s performance in 2018 has entered a period of stabilization and recovery. We expect Red Bull’s 18 and 19 years’ results to maintain 10%Growth rate.

The company’s current PE19X is at an all-time low and overlaps with MSCI’s expansion of Origen. It is estimated that the improvement is worth looking forward to.

The trend of the two-piece can industry has reached an inflection point, and the leader Origen has benefited significantly.

Amount: The current canning rate of carbon dioxide beer is only about 17%, which is far lower than that of Japan, the United States, and other countries. At present, beer is in small bottles and cans are in a trend of packaging. The demand for two-piece cans is accelerating.

The increase in canning rate is driven by the upgrade of the accepted 杭州桑拿 beer product structure. The proportion of small bottles and high-quality products has increased. Second, it is favored because of the cost-effectiveness of two-piece cans: the price is almost half that of glass bottles, and the efficiency of canning bottles.at 2.

It ranges from 4-12 thousand / hour, and the bottling line efficiency is 2.

4-4.

80,000 / hour.

Based on the steady growth of China’s beer production, for every 1% increase in canning rate, 13 will be added.

Demand for 3.4 billion 330ML two-piece cans, or 8.

Demand for 800 million 500ML two-piece cans. The production capacity of two-piece can leader Oruijin will rank first in the industry, and rapid response to production capacity will give priority to enjoying the industry demand heavy dividend.

Beneficial: The leading bargaining power has been rebuilt. With the acquisition of Boer Asia Pacific in 19 years, the market share of the “Origen-COFCO-Boer” synergy market can reach up.

8%, the bargaining system was rebuilt, and the price increase of two-piece cans was initially determined.

New customers of the Xianning Plant have entered the market one after another, and the foundation for capacity climbing has been consolidated.

In 2018, the capacity utilization rate of Xianning Plant was about 40%, and the designed capacity was 1 billion cans.

New customers are entering the market one after another, including Budweiser, Danone, Amway, etc., and throughput climbing infrastructure.

Xianning’s new packaging project is automated and intelligent. It is the highest level in the world. It takes longer to continuously increase the demand for the special-shaped cans in the script.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: Based on the neutral expectation of the ramp-up of production capacity and the volume of two-piece cans, and reasonable price increase, we expect the company’s total operating income for 2019-2020 to be 111.

01 billion, 142.

8.9 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 9.

1 billion, 11.

3.5 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

39 yuan, 0.

48 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 15.

0X, 12.

0X, maintain “Buy” level.

Risk reminder: the risk of rising raw material prices, major food safety risks, and the risk of record approval